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The world's largest smartphone market is in a slump, but that's not slowing down Apple's growth

Apple is defying all industry trends this year, boosting its handset sales in China while all other brands are going down.

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By Adrian Diaconescu

Published: Mar 23, 2026, 9:43 AM

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The iPhone 17 is Apple's key growth driver in China (and many other places). | Image by PhoneArena

March is not over yet, which means that the year's first quarter smartphone sales reports can't already be completed, but it's definitely not too early to make some educated guesses on how certain companies will be ranked in certain markets and how said markets will be impacted by the industry's greatest challenge right now.

For instance, it doesn't take a psychic to anticipate that global handset shipments will likely fall in the January-March timeframe of 2026 compared to the same period of last year due to rising component costs and the retail prices so many device manufacturers had to increase as a consequence. Even the world's second most populous nation and single largest smartphone market is expected to contract in Q1, but believe it or not, one major vendor could (vastly) improve its regional numbers.

Everybody loves the iPhone 17

Obviously, one model can't be made responsible for either the progress or decline of a brand like Apple in a country like China, but the base iPhone 17 is reportedly the main driver behind its maker's incredible 23 percent year-on-year growth tracked over the first nine weeks of 2026.

Chinese smartphone sales in the first 9 weeks of 2026

Things are definitely not looking good for the Chinese smartphone market as a whole. | Image by Counterpoint Research

The non-Pro 6.3-inch iPhone 17 is widely expected to follow in the footsteps of the "vanilla" iPhone 16 and become the world's top-selling smartphone this year, but before that happens, it's definitely not surprising to hear about its huge popularity in China, where its price was kept in check at the beginning of 2026 by both e-commerce discounts and government subsidies.

Apple's 23 percent jump in overall Chinese sales, however, is a little surprising, at least compared to the 4 percent year-over-year decline of the market as a whole in January and February. That's clearly a worrying trend brought about by weak consumer demand and an "underperforming" Lunar New Year promotions season, but somehow, Apple managed to defy that trend in its quest to become the country's number one vendor by the end of the year.

Do you think global smartphone sales will recover anytime soon?

Until then, the market is likely to "remain under pressure from March to May", with "some improvement" expected to happen in "early June." Will that improvement keep going through the end of the year, helping the market expand compared to 2025? I doubt it, but you never know in this crazy tech world we're living in.

Can Apple top the Q1 2026 chart?

Globally, I think so. In China, maybe not. That's because Apple was only the nation's number five smartphone vendor in Q1 2025, and although the gaps to the first four places were relatively small, overtaking Oppo, Xiaomi, Vivo, and Huawei all at once seems... pretty hard.

The iPhone 17 will definitely remain one of China's best-selling devices for at least a little while longer. | Image by PhoneArena

Then again, Oppo and Vivo's market shares are virtually guaranteed to shrink following the two brands' decision to raise prices for "some existing models" and thus try to set the stage for costlier next-gen devices. These decisions are reportedly reversible, depending greatly on how big of an impact the price hikes will have on sales figures, but before they can be reversed, Apple could definitely surpass both Oppo and Vivo (in addition to Xiaomi).

Beating market leader Huawei might prove a bit more challenging, as the local hero heavily relies on domestic parts suppliers, which should allow it to better keep product prices in check. Apple, meanwhile, will do that by "absorbing part of the margin pressure" and exercising a "strong control over the supply chain", which is basically a fancy and convoluted way of saying that the tech giant is likely to effectively pass the rising costs back to its suppliers rather than consumers.

What about the full-year chart?

I'm obviously not Nostradamus, but if Apple isn't China's top smartphone vendor at the end of 2026, I will eat my hat in front of all you PhoneArena readers. In fact, I'm pretty certain that the Cupertino-based outfit will lead the global hierarchy as well (and I think Samsung is certain of that too), but that's a different discussion.

Strictly speaking about China, Apple came extremely close to the number one spot in 2025, finishing the year just 0.2 percent behind gold medalist Huawei in market share, and with this 23 percent boost in sales for the first nine weeks, the path to regional supremacy is clearly laid out and almost impossible to stray from.

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Adrian, a mobile technology enthusiast since the Nokia 3310 era, has been a dynamic presence in the tech journalism field, contributing to Android Authority, Digital Trends, and Pocketnow before joining PhoneArena in 2018. His expertise spans across various platforms, with a particular fondness for the diversity of the Android ecosystem. Despite the challenges of balancing full-time parenthood with his work, Adrian's passion for tech trends, running, and movies keeps him energized. His commitment to mid-range smartphones has led to an eclectic collection of devices, saved from personal bankruptcy by his preference for 'adequate' over 'overpriced'.

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